📋 THE BIG BOARD
The full data behind Fintech Friday. Every number we tracked this week, organized the same way as the blast: what capital costs, where it moved, and what it is powering. Levels as of September 11, 2026.
💵 COST OF CAPITAL
Rates are climbing across the curve and around the world. The long end is at multi-year highs, credit is still calm, and the dollar is firm. Here is the full picture.
🇺🇸 At home
Metric | Level | What it means |
|---|---|---|
Fed funds | 3.50 to 3.75% | Hike expected into hot inflation |
Next FOMC | Sep 16 | Decision day next week |
2-yr Treasury | ~4.56% | Front end pricing more hikes |
10-yr Treasury | ~4.98% | Mortgages, credit stay pricey |
30-yr Treasury | ~5.37% | Long bonds at the highs |
CPI (YoY) | 3.4% | Prices still rising too fast |
Unemployment | 4.1% | Labor market still holding |
GDP | +1.5% | Growth cooling, not stalling |
30-yr mortgage | 6.81% | Buyers frozen out |
Federal deficit | ~$2T | More debt lifts rates |
HY credit spread | ~270 bps | Credit market still calm |
VIX | ~19 | Fear ticking up |
S&P 500 | ~7,662 | Near record highs |
Nasdaq | ~26,080 | AI names leading |
Dollar (DXY) | ~99 | Dollar firm, squeezing others |
Gold | ~$4,345 | Fear trade still on |
🌍 Abroad
Metric | Level | What it means |
|---|---|---|
ECB | 2.50% | Europe cutting to help growth |
Bank of England | 3.75% hold | UK on hold, watching |
Bank of Japan | 1.25% | Japan tightening, slowly |
Bank of Korea | 3.00% | Korea cooling an AI boom |
China 1Y LPR | 3.00% | Held 15 months straight |
India RBI repo | 5.25% | On hold, growth steady |
Germany 10Y Bund | ~3.51% | Highest since 2009 |
UK 10Y Gilt | ~5.36% | Fiscal worries biting |
Japan 10Y JGB | ~2.99% | Near a 30-year high |
KOSPI | ~6,910 | AI chips minting fortunes |
EUR/USD | ~1.16 | Euro firm vs dollar |
USD/JPY | ~154 | Yen still weak |
USD/KRW | ~1,342 | Won soft, slowly recovering |
USD/CNY | ~6.71 | Yuan near a 2-yr high |
Global bonds | Selloff | Borrowing costs rising everywhere |
EM | Pressured | Strong dollar squeezing them |
💸 MONEY MOVES
Every non-crypto capital move we tracked this week, biggest first, geography by the acquirer, with a line on each. Deal names link to a source where we have one.
🇺🇸 Domestic · Tech
Nvidia → Hugging Face $12.9B — buying the open-source AI model hub.
Crusoe $3B — AI datacenter builder, now ~$30B valuation.
Fluidstack $1.5B — GPU cloud, backed by Jane Street.
Analog Devices → Alif Semi $1.35B — edge-AI microcontrollers.
Positron AI $875M — inference chips, QIA-backed.
Wonderful $550M — enterprise AI agents, $5B valuation.
Clay $115M — go-to-market data platform.
HiddenLayer $100M — AI model security.
🇺🇸 Domestic · Industrials, Auto & Materials
GE Aerospace → CPP Investments $11.75B — buying out an engine-JV stake.
Copart → ACV Auctions $1.9B — online vehicle remarketing.
Alcoa notes $2.6B — debt raise.
Cerberus → Goodwin Mechanical ~$1.5B — UK engineering carve-out.
Stanley B&D → Bad Boy Mowers — divesting its mower unit.
Blackstone → Flow Control — datacenter cooling.
🇺🇸 Domestic · Health & Consumer
Oura IPO filing >$16B val — smart ring, ~$1.4B revenue.
Nestlé VMS → Yellow Wood $1B — vitamins brands carve-out.
Medici / David protein $250M — high-protein food, $2.25B val.
Forus $150M — health.
Thyme Care $125M — cancer-care navigation.
🇺🇸 Domestic · Real Estate & Finance
Independence Realty ↔ Centerspace $8.1B — all-stock apartment REIT merger.
Jefferies European direct-lending fund $4B — private credit push.
Savvy Wealth $100M — AI-driven wealth management.
TabaPay $155M — payments infrastructure.
🌍 International · Tech
Mistral AI €3B (France) — Europe's sovereign-AI champion, ~€21B val.
Bending Spoons → Miro $1.36B (Italy/NL) — buying the whiteboard app.
The Exploration Company $450M (DE/FR) — reusable spacecraft.
iPronics $125M (Spain) — photonic compute.
Pixxel $100M (India) — India's biggest spacetech round.
Arlequin AI €28M (France) — topological neural nets.
QNu Labs $21M (India) — quantum security.
CloudNC $20M (UK) — AI CNC machining.
PLD Space (Spain) — launch.
🌍 International · Finance
NSE India IPO ~$46B val — India's exchange finally listing.
JTC take-private £2.7B (UK, Permira) — fund-admin going private.
Arini ~$4B (UK) — credit fund.
FNZ $450M (UK/NZ) — wealth platform recovery raise.
Limetax €36M (Germany) — AI tax-and-accounting roll-up.
🌍 International · Health & Consumer
Musinsa KOSPI IPO ~$6B (Korea) — fashion-commerce listing.
Nua $50M (India) — women's health brand.
Swish $24M (India) — 10-minute food delivery.
upGrad → Unacademy (India) — edtech consolidation.
⚡ ENERGY & COMMODITIES
Oil above $100 is the headline, but the whole complex moved. Full price sheet, the week's grab for AI power, and who controls the barrels and minerals.
🌐 Prices
Commodity | Level | Week |
|---|---|---|
Brent | ~$104.9/bbl | ▲ ~9% |
WTI | ~$99.7/bbl | ▲ strong |
US diesel (retail) | ~$5.97/gal | ▲ record high |
US gasoline (AAA) | $4.30/gal | ▲ +13¢/wk |
US natgas (Henry Hub) | $2.80/MMBtu | ▼ soft, decoupled |
EU natgas (TTF) | ~€80/MWh | ▲ elevated |
Thermal coal (Newcastle) | ~$148/t | firm |
Gold | ~$4,345/oz | ▼ ~1.5% |
Silver | $64.4/oz | ▼ ~1% |
Platinum | ~$1,780/oz | ▼ ~1% |
Palladium | ~$1,288/oz | ~flat |
Copper | $6.48/lb | ~flat |
Uranium | ~$90/lb | flat |
Lithium | ~$20k/t | ▼ 1-mo low |
Wheat (CBOT) | ~$7.18/bu | steady |
Corn (CBOT) | ~$5.08/bu | steady |
⚡ Power for AI — the week's grab for electrons.
Deal | What | Size |
|---|---|---|
Google + DOE | Restart Iowa nuclear plant (Duane Arnold) | $1.9B loan |
Google → Fervo | Geothermal for a Utah data center | 396 MW |
Williams | Pipelines aimed at data centers | $5.5B |
Shell → ARC | Natural gas supply for LNG | $13.9B |
Flex → EPC | Data-center power gear | $4.4B |
Enbridge → Tallgrass | Midstream consolidation | $2.55B |
Constellation → RISEC | Power plant | $715M |
USA Rare Earth | Magnet / minerals plant | $1.2B |
Nexeon | Battery materials | £100M |
🛢️ Supply & policy
Item | Latest | What it means |
|---|---|---|
OPEC+ (Oct) | Output held (Sep 6) | Cartel out of easy barrels |
US crude output | ~14 mb/d record | US pumping flat out |
US strategic reserve | Below 300M bbl | Lowest since 1983 |
🌍 The East — Russia
Move | Detail | What it means |
|---|---|---|
Urals crude | Back above $80 | Price cap squeezing revenue |
Export revenue | Down 12% m/m | Sanctions biting harder |
Buyers | China 43% of top-5 revenue | China and India absorb the barrels |
Power of Siberia 2 | Deadlocked ($50 vs $250/tcm) | The deal that won't close |
🌍 The East — China
Move | Detail | What it means |
|---|---|---|
Crude imports | ~37% below pre-conflict | Refiners balking at $100 oil |
LNG imports | Down 18% | Demand destruction from prices |
Power generation | Flat (coal down, solar up) | Weak demand growth |
Rare-earth engineers | Exit ban (Sept 15) | Tightening its mineral grip |
The catalyst to watch: the Sept 24 Xi and Trump summit, with China holding the whip hand on both barrels and minerals.