📋 THE BIG BOARD
The full data behind Fintech Friday. Every number we tracked this week, organized the same way as the blast: what capital costs, where it moved, what it is powering, who wants a piece of AI, what crypto did, and the hardware. Levels as of Friday morning, October 2, 2026. Closes will differ slightly.
💵 COST OF CAPITAL
Borrowing hit its most expensive level since 2002 on Wednesday. Then a weak jobs report on Friday took some of the pressure off. Here is the full picture.
Why a weak jobs report is good news for borrowers
The economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, far below the roughly 90,000 forecasters expected. Earlier months were also revised down by 60,000.
When hiring slows, companies have less reason to raise pay and prices. That means less inflation, and less reason for the Fed to raise rates again. Traders now see about a 1 in 4 chance of an October hike, down from about 70% a week ago. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, core PCE, also cooled to 3.0%.
Bad news for workers turned into good news for anyone with a loan.
🇺🇸 At home
Metric | Level | What it means |
|---|---|---|
Fed funds | 3.75 to 4.00% | Unchanged. Next meeting Oct 27 and 28 |
October hike odds | ~1 in 4 | ▼ from ~70% a week ago |
2-yr Treasury | 4.78% | Oct 1 close, ▼ 3bp on the week |
10-yr Treasury | 5.24% | Oct 1 close. Peaked at 5.29% Wednesday |
30-yr Treasury | 5.61% | Oct 1 close. Peaked at 5.64% Wednesday |
30-yr mortgage | 7.28% | Highest since Nov 2023, ▲ from 7.03% |
15-yr mortgage | 6.60% | ▲ from 6.42% |
Jobs (Sept) | +29K | vs ~90K expected (Bloomberg survey) |
Unemployment | 4.2% | ▲ from 4.1% |
Hourly pay | +3.0% y/y | Barely rising |
PCE inflation (Aug) | 3.4% | Core 3.0%, down from 3.3% |
ISM manufacturing | 54.5 | Prices paid jumped to 77.9 |
🌍 Abroad
Metric | Level | What it means |
|---|---|---|
ECB | 2.50% | Holding. Euro inflation jumped to 3.8% |
BOJ | 1.25% | Holding. Tankan at +24, best since 2018 |
BOE | 3.75% | Holding, next vote Nov 5 |
RBA (Australia) | 4.60% | Hiked Tuesday, a 15-year high |
Colombia | 12.25% | Surprise hike Wednesday |
PBoC (China) | 3.00% / 3.50% | Holding, China on holiday through Oct 7 |
RBI (India) | 5.25% | Next decision Oct 5 to 7 |
Nikkei 225 | ~68,957 | ▲ 3.3% Thursday on chip stocks |
KOSPI | ~7,004 | Back above 7,000 Friday |
💸 MONEY MOVES
Every non-crypto capital move we tracked this week, biggest first, grouped by where the buyer is based. Every deal name links to its source.
The theme: the seller is now the bank
Broadcom agreed to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion to lease its chips. It works like a car dealer that also writes your loan. The sale happens either way, but now the seller carries the risk if the buyer can't pay.
The rest of the week followed the same money. AMD bought an AI lab, Snowflake borrowed at 0%, Hut 8 got a bank line to build AI data centers, and an Australian data center company lined up one of the country's biggest IPOs ever.
🇺🇸 Domestic
Deal | Sector | Size | What |
|---|---|---|---|
AI infra | Up to $42B | Loan to lease chips, from Anthropic's IPO filing | |
AI | ~$8.2B | All stock. Fei-Fei Li becomes AMD chief scientist | |
Chips | $5.7B | Deal re-cut to $123 a share in cash | |
Aerospace | $4.0B value | Aircraft maintenance, includes debt | |
Software | $3.75B | 0% interest, upsized from $3.5B | |
AI infra | $1.07B | 12 banks led by JPMorgan | |
Food | ~$1.06B | Frozen chicken maker | |
AI | $1B | At a $10B valuation | |
Banking | $728M | All stock, owner of OpenSky cards | |
AI infra | $540M | Priced at $18, below its range |
🌍 International
Deal | Sector | Size | What |
|---|---|---|---|
AI infra | ~US$4.9B | A$7.1B at A$11 a share, trades Oct 23 | |
Healthcare | Up to $2.6B | License for a weekly weight-loss pill | |
Healthcare | £1.1B | New homes from LNT Care Developments | |
Healthcare | Up to €750M | Buys the remaining 45% | |
Fintech | ~£529M | £1.96 a share, £5.3B valuation |
👀 Reported, not done
OpenAI is reportedly raising at least $30B at about a $1.4T valuation.
Blockchain.com is reportedly targeting a ~$500M IPO at up to a $6B valuation.
⚡ ENERGY & COMMODITIES
Oil spiked, then fell, all in two days. The full price sheet, the week's grab for AI power, and what is moving in the East.
How the world's spare tank works
Three oil tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday and Wednesday, and oil jumped. Then the G7 agreed to release up to 100 million barrels from emergency reserves over four months, with diesel coming first. Oil fell back.
Countries keep oil in storage for exactly this. Releasing it calms prices fast, but it only lasts as long as the reserve does. Diesel is off its record but still costs about $2.67 a gallon more than a year ago, according to AAA. That shows up in shipping, and then in groceries.
🌐 Prices
Commodity | Level | Week |
|---|---|---|
~$100/bbl | ▼ ~4% | |
~$90/bbl | ▼ ~3% | |
$6.37/gal | ▼ from the $6.53 record | |
$4.40/gal | ▼ ~10¢ | |
~€74/MWh | Elevated on Hormuz risk | |
~$3.03/MMBtu | Storage near record highs | |
~$4,145/oz | ▼, strong dollar and 5% yields | |
~$6.54/lb | Chile output lowest since 2011 |
🔌 Power for AI
Michigan regulators unanimously approved Google's 1 GW power deal with DTE. Google pays for at least 80% of the capacity whether it uses it or not.
A Senate bill to keep data center grid costs off household power bills failed to advance. It got 57 votes but needed 60.
Enerflex won a 450 MW contract to power a data center on site, skipping the grid.
AI data center leases are stretching to 20 years because power is now the scarce part.
🌏 The East
Three tankers were struck in the Strait of Hormuz. One caught fire, and the crews are safe.
China's LNG imports are on track to fall about 8% in September, according to a Kpler estimate.
South Korea's exports hit a record $120.9B in September as chip sales rose 263%.
Next up: the Fed meets Oct 27 and 28.
🔌 WASHINGTON WANTS A PIECE OF AI
The full story behind the main thread: why Washington wants a piece of the AI labs, and why Meta might not need one.
The pledge
On Tuesday leaders from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Nvidia and xAI signed a voluntary safety pledge at the White House, called the White House Accord on Super Intelligence. It has no penalties.
The stake
On Thursday Time published an interview where Trump said he "might" take a stake in OpenAI and Anthropic, like the 9.9% of Intel the government already owns. Asked about a full takeover, he said "No."
The bills
Company | Number | What it is |
|---|---|---|
~$600B | Planned compute spend by 2030, cut from $1.4T | |
~$518B | Cloud and computing commitments in its leaked IPO filing | |
$11.5B | Q2 2026 revenue, up from $4.73B in Q1 | |
Up to $42B | Loan to lease chips | |
$130B to $145B | 2026 capex guidance | |
3.6B | People using its apps every day |
Why a partner looks like insurance
When your bills run into the hundreds of billions, a government partner starts to look like insurance. If things go wrong, it is hard for Washington to let a company it owns a piece of fail.
But no partner stays silent forever. An owner usually wants a say in what the company builds and who it sells to.
Meta's different bet
Meta spends a lot too, but its bill is paid by an ad business that already works, and 3.6 billion people already use its apps every day. It doesn't need to promise the future to get paid.
The labs are building the power plants. Meta already owns the houses.
₿ CRYPTO CORNER
Prices, the new dollar coin, and the week's regulation, in one place. Prices are live quotes from Friday morning, Oct 2. Week change is vs Sept 25.
Visa, Mastercard and Stripe just launched their own dollar coin
A stablecoin is a digital dollar backed by real dollars. On Wednesday a group backed by Stripe, Visa, Mastercard, Coinbase and Shopify launched OUSD, issued by Stripe's Bridge. Businesses that join the group as partners earn rewards on their balances and activity. The fight in payments is now over who gets paid for holding your dollars.
🪙 Majors
Coin | Price | Week |
|---|---|---|
Bitcoin | ~$85,400 | ▲ ~1.5% |
Ethereum | ~$2,700 | ▲ ~0.2% |
Solana | ~$120 | ▼ ~1.8% |
XRP | ~$1.51 | ▼ ~3.7% |
BNB | ~$773 | ▼ ~0.4% |
Source: CoinGecko, 15:50 UTC Oct 2.
The week in crypto
The SEC proposed rules for how investment firms hold crypto for clients.
The CFTC sent the White House draft rules that would put prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket under federal oversight.
Goldman connected its $100B Treasury money fund to a blockchain network, so it can move like cash on chain.
Western Union's own dollar coin, USDPT, went live on Solana.
Kalshi will end its trader rewards program no earlier than Oct 13, after wash trading claims. Kalshi denies them.
Hackers took $1.26B in Q3, most of it in September.
🥽 THE HARDWARE
What shipped and what got built this week, from your face to the lab.
Consumer
Ray-Ban Meta Audio, glasses with speakers and Meta's AI but no camera, cost $349 and ship Oct 13.
Amazon refreshed its Kindles: a base model from $150, Paperwhite from $200 and Colorsoft from $290.
Enterprise
Amazon's cloud signed a chip design deal with Synopsys worth more than $1 billion, so it can design more of its own chips.
New AMD-powered PCs from HP, Lenovo and Framework can run large AI models right on the desk, no cloud bill.
Samsung is investing $1B in Helix, an AI data center and power company backed by KKR and Nvidia.
AMD is buying World Labs, which builds AI that creates 3D worlds for robots to learn in.
Research
Alice & Bob showed a simpler way to keep quantum bits stable, using a small steady voltage instead of microwaves. Simpler parts make bigger quantum computers easier to build.
Researchers proposed a qubit made from helium that could make about 100 times fewer errors. It is a design, not a prototype yet.
📰 MORE THIS WEEK
Everything else worth knowing from Sept 26 to Oct 2, grouped by topic. Every item links to its source.
📈 Markets
Micron reported $54.2B in quarterly revenue, up from $11.3B a year ago, and guided to $61.5B next quarter.
Nvidia added $150B to its buyback, the largest single buyback increase ever, bringing its total to $235B.
Accenture closed up about 16% Thursday after beating earnings estimates, easing fears that AI kills consulting.
Nike fell to its lowest since 2013 after revenue dropped 4% to $11.2B, and said a cost-cutting program will mean fewer roles.
Tesla delivered 486,532 cars in Q3, beating the roughly 462,000 expected.
China halted October fuel exports, helping push Brent back above $100 on Thursday.
Consumer confidence fell to 81.9, its lowest in more than 12 years.
💰 Deals and money
Mattel jumped about 19% after the WSJ reported Authentic Brands is in talks to buy it for more than $20 a share.
Oura pulled its $2.2B IPO hours before pricing, citing market uncertainty.
SoftBank finished paying for its OpenAI stake, helped by an $11.1B bond, the largest junk bond sale ever.
Kalshi is raising about $1B at roughly a $40B valuation, more than DraftKings and Flutter combined.
🤖 AI and tech
OpenAI won't go public until it can make "confident safety claims", Sam Altman said at DevDay on Sept 29.
Tencent is renting about 100,000 US AI chips through Oracle data centers in Southeast Asia, about $7B over five years.
Google won dismissal of publisher lawsuits over its AI Overviews. The judge: "an expectation is not an agreement."
₿ Crypto
Bitget lost about $387M in a hack blamed on North Korea, the largest crypto hack of the year.
Citi raised its bitcoin target to $113K over the next 12 months.
🎭 People and drama
MongoDB's CEO CJ Desai quit after less than a year to run a new Meta unit selling its AI to businesses. The stock fell about 18%, about $6B in value.
OpenAI parted ways with three safety researchers for sharing sensitive information with an outside group, the same week it scrapped its next model over safety.
Elon Musk will co-lead Project Meridian, a 120-day Pentagon study on the future of war, with Palmer Luckey and Newt Gingrich.
🏛️ Politics and culture
Brazil votes Sunday. The latest Datafolha poll has Lula at 42% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 38%, with a likely runoff Oct 25.
Senators Hawley and Murphy introduced a bill to make companies that build or use AI agents liable when those agents hack.
Avengers: Endgame, a 2019 movie, opened at No. 1 again with $86M worldwide, beating every new release.