📋 THE BIG BOARD
The full data behind Fintech Friday. Every number we tracked this week, organized the same way as the blast: what capital costs, where it moved, what it is powering, who's checking AI's math, what crypto did, and the hardware. Levels as of Friday morning, October 9, 2026. Closes will differ slightly.
💵 COST OF CAPITAL
Borrowing costs hit multi-decade highs around the world this week. Here is the full picture.
Why the bond market blinked
On Wednesday the 10-year Treasury topped 5.35%, the highest since 2002. Mortgages climbed to 7.40%, up for the 7th straight week.
Then the bond market blinked. Buyers showed up big at Wednesday's 10-year auction, and the rate closed Thursday at 5.22%. Traders now see about an 18% chance of an October hike, but most Fed officials still expect one more by year-end.
It's not just us. India's central bank raised rates for the first time in nearly four years, and Indian stocks fell more than 2% in two days. UK 30-year rates hit their highest since 1998, and Japan sold 10-year bonds above 3%.
Money got more expensive everywhere at once.
🇺🇸 At home
Metric | Level | What it means |
|---|---|---|
Fed funds | 3.75 to 4.00% | Unchanged. Next meeting Oct 27 and 28 |
October hike odds | ~18% | ▼ from ~1 in 4 last week |
2-yr Treasury | 4.75% | Oct 8 close, ▼ 8bp on the week |
10-yr Treasury | 5.22% | Oct 8 close. Topped 5.35% Wednesday, highest since 2002 |
30-yr Treasury | 5.60% | Oct 8 close. Hit 5.67% Wednesday |
30-yr mortgage | 7.40% | Highest since Nov 2023, ▲ from 7.28% |
15-yr mortgage | 6.73% | ▲ from 6.60% |
Jobs (Sept) | +29K | vs ~90K expected (Bloomberg survey) |
Unemployment | 4.2% | ▲ from 4.1% |
Hourly pay | +3.0% y/y | Barely rising |
PCE inflation (Aug) | 3.4% | Core 3.0%, down from 3.3% |
ISM manufacturing | 54.5 | Prices paid jumped to 77.9 |
🌍 Abroad
Metric | Level | What it means |
|---|---|---|
ECB | 2.50% | Holding. Next meeting Oct 29 |
BOJ | 1.25% | Holding. Next meeting Oct 28 |
BOE | 3.75% | Holding, next vote Nov 5 |
RBA (Australia) | 4.60% | Holding, next meeting Nov 3 |
RBI (India) | 5.50% | Hiked 25bp Wednesday |
UK 30-yr gilt | 6.04% | Highest since 1998, hit Wednesday |
Japan 10-yr auction | 3.10% | Up from 2.995% at the last sale |
Nikkei 225 | ~69,031 | Flat Friday |
Sensex (India) | ~72,472 | ▲ 1.2% Friday after a two-day slide |
KOSPI | ~6,626 | ▼ 2.6% Thursday, third straight loss |
💸 MONEY MOVES
Every capital move we tracked this week, biggest first, grouped by where the company is based. Every deal name links to its source.
The theme: the money went to the pipes
The biggest check this week was cash, not hype. Uber paid $2.3 billion in cash for ezCater, the app offices use to order catering.
The rest of the money went to the pipes. Stablecoin companies like Spiko, Noah and IMMIX raised money, and Anchorage bought Routable to pay businesses in digital dollars. Homeward and Valon, two companies fixing how people buy and pay for homes, raised $600 million between them, including debt, while mortgages sit at 7.40%.
When money is expensive, investors fund what already works.
🇺🇸 Domestic
Deal | Sector | Size | What |
|---|---|---|---|
Food delivery | $2.3B | All cash. Catering for office meetings | |
Mortgage fintech | $450M | $120M Series D equity plus $330M debt | |
Capital markets | $220M | $120M Series E at $1.9B, plus debt | |
Insurance | $200M | Reported $2.6B valuation | |
Mortgage software | $150M | Series D at $2.3B, led by Ribbit | |
AI | $90M | Series B at $1.5B | |
AI fintech | $52.5M | Series B led by Insight Partners | |
Stablecoins | Undisclosed | Business payouts in stablecoins | |
Fintech | Undisclosed | Banking infrastructure |
🌍 International
Deal | Sector | Size | What |
|---|---|---|---|
AI | $500M+ | Reported ~$4B valuation | |
Fintech | ~$150M | Egypt's biggest listing since 2021 | |
Tokenized funds | $90M | Series B led by NEA | |
Stablecoins | $16M | Seed now $38M | |
Stablecoins | $3.5M | Swaps between non-dollar stablecoins | |
Crypto | Undisclosed | At a $25B valuation |
👀 Reported, not done
⚡ ENERGY & COMMODITIES
Oil rose again, and the emergency cushion is getting thin. The full price sheet, the week's grab for AI power, and what is moving in the East.
How the world's spare tank works
Brent rose about 2% this week to around $105, even as countries keep draining their emergency reserves. A record 10 tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz in a single week.
About 325 million of the 400 million emergency barrels agreed in March are already gone. Think of it as a spare tank that's almost empty.
Pump prices barely moved. The hit is showing up elsewhere: heating oil bills are forecast up 21% this winter, and Delta cut its outlook after its fuel bill jumped 62%.
The real money is in moving oil. Renting a supertanker from the Middle East to Asia now costs about $1.3 million a day, up from about $30,000 in January. BWET, a fund that bets on those shipping rates, is up about 52x this year.
Oil isn't just a driver problem anymore. It's on the earnings call.
🌐 Prices
Commodity | Level | Week |
|---|---|---|
~$105/bbl | ▲ ~2% | |
~$92/bbl | Little changed | |
$6.28/gal | ▼ 9¢ | |
$4.37/gal | ▼ 3¢ | |
~€80/MWh | Volatile on Hormuz risk | |
~$3.13/MMBtu | ▲ ~10% on the month | |
~$4,185/oz | Flat on the week | |
~$6.64/lb | ▲ ~2% Friday |
🔌 Power for AI
Google signed a 20-year deal with Constellation for new nuclear power from upgrades at existing reactors.
The PJM grid that serves those reactors is about 6.8 GW short of what it needs.
🌏 The East
India's central bank hiked to 5.50%, its first hike in nearly four years. The Sensex slid more than 2% in two days, then bounced 1.2% Friday.
The US Labor Department suspended TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL, Cognizant, Capgemini, Microsoft and Adobe from the green card sponsorship program on Oct 8. Indian IT stocks rose anyway Friday, led by TCS, up about 5% after solid earnings.
India's Russian oil imports fell to 310K barrels a day, the lowest since March 2022, because Russian crude now costs more than Brent.
Japan's 10-year auction cleared above 3%.
South Korea's KOSPI fell 2.6% Thursday, its third straight loss.
Next up: September inflation on Oct 14, then the Fed on Oct 27 and 28.
🧮 CHECKING THE MATH
The full story behind the main thread: why OpenAI's revenue came in $20 billion lower than reported, and why that matters more in a 5% world.
The number
Last month, reports said OpenAI was bringing in money at a $70 billion yearly pace. On Thursday the FT reported OpenAI told investors the real number is closer to $50 billion.
Why the gap
Nobody lost a sale. The $70 billion figure included money that passes through partners like Microsoft. OpenAI's own number counts only what it keeps. There's no standard rule for which is right, and The Information called the whole thing a flawed metric.
The receipts
What | Number | What it is |
|---|---|---|
~$70B | Yearly pace, counting partner pass-through | |
~$50B | What OpenAI told investors | |
▼ 5.27% | Oct 8 | |
▼ 4.24% | Oct 8 | |
▼ 2.73% | Oct 8 | |
▼ 1.25% | Closed at 27,193 | |
$518B+ | Computing bills in its leaked IPO filing |
The bigger bill
The same week, Broadcom was reportedly seeking more than $50 billion to finance OpenAI's custom chips. The AI build is running more and more on borrowed money, and borrowed money just got more expensive.
Why it matters for Anthropic
Anthropic is reportedly preparing to go public after the November midterms at a value above $2 trillion, and its leaked filing shows at least $518 billion in computing bills. In a 5% world, IPO buyers will check its revenue math line by line. Cheap money would have given it the benefit of the doubt.
Cheap money buys the story. Expensive money checks the receipts.
₿ CRYPTO CORNER
Prices, the sell-off, Samsung's new wallet, and the week's regulation, in one place. Prices are live quotes from Friday morning, Oct 9. Week change is vs Oct 2.
Money got expensive. Crypto paid for it.
When safe government bonds pay over 5%, investors don't need to take big risks to earn a return. So money moves out of the riskiest bets first, and crypto is near the top of that list.
That's what happened this week. As the 10-year topped 5.35%, investors pulled $487 million out of Bitcoin funds on Oct 7, the most in a single day since June. Bitcoin fell about 4% to around $82,900, Ether about 9% and Solana about 10%. Bitcoin is now about 34% below its $126,080 record, set one year ago this week.
But the building didn't stop. Starting in late October, 82 million Galaxy phones in the US can send USDC, a digital dollar, straight from Samsung Wallet. It runs on Solana and arrives in seconds.
The money left. The pipes got built anyway.
🪙 Majors
Coin | Price | Week |
|---|---|---|
Bitcoin | ~$82,900 | ▼ ~4% |
Ethereum | ~$2,490 | ▼ ~9% |
Solana | ~$109 | ▼ ~10% |
XRP | ~$1.38 | ▼ ~10% |
BNB | ~$738 | ▼ ~5% |
Source: CoinGecko, 15:24 UTC Oct 9.
The week in crypto
Samsung Wallet is adding USDC on Solana for 82M US Galaxy phones.
ICE, which owns the NYSE, and OKX filed for 24/7 trading of 60+ tokenized US stocks.
The CFTC proposed two crypto rules on Oct 5. Comments are open for 60 days.
Small banks (ICBA) sued the OCC over crypto trust charters.
Bitcoin funds lost $487.1M on Oct 7, the most since June.
It's one year since Bitcoin's $126,080 record. It is now about 34% below it.
🥽 THE HARDWARE
What shipped and what got built this week, from your desk to the lab.
Consumer
Googlebook laptops from Acer, ASUS, Dell, HP and Lenovo went on sale, starting at $899, with Google's Gemini AI built in.
Apple opened app submissions for the iPhone Duo on Oct 5. The phone starts at $1,999 and launches Oct 23.
Enterprise
AMD's Lisa Su promised to raise AI chip supply again in 2027. AMD stock is up nearly 194% this year.
Mecka AI raised a $60M Series B backed by Sequoia and Nvidia. It pays people to record everyday tasks so robots can learn from them.
Nuclear
Google signed a deal with Constellation for new nuclear power from upgrades at existing reactors, to run its data centers.
Research
DARPA moved IonQ, IBM, Atom Computing and Diraq to the final stage of its program to find which quantum computers can do useful work.
📰 MORE THIS WEEK
Everything else worth knowing from Oct 3 to Oct 9, grouped by topic. Every item links to its source.
📈 Markets
Delta cut its outlook after its fuel bill jumped 62% to $4.1B. It now sees $5.10 to $5.60 a share this year, down from $6.50 to $7.50.
PepsiCo lowered its profit outlook even as revenue rose 5.6% to $25.27B.
India's Sensex slid more than 2% in two days after the central bank's surprise hike, then bounced 1.2% Friday to 72,472.
💰 Deals and money
Uber is paying $2.3B in cash for ezCater, the catering app for office meetings.
Starbucks discussed a takeover of Chipotle with advisers, the FT reported. Chipotle jumped about 7%.
🤖 AI and tech
Mistral announced Large 4, a 1 trillion parameter model it plans to release openly on Oct 27. Reflection also unveiled Beam, a 501B open model.
₿ Crypto
Spot Bitcoin funds lost $487.1M on Oct 7, the most in a single day since June.
NYSE owner ICE and OKX filed for 24/7 trading of 60+ tokenized US stocks.
🎭 People and drama
Sam Altman said the world should accept "some bad things happening" for the benefits of AI. The quote went viral.
Warren Buffett, 96 and retired, spends his time watching YouTube in the evenings.
🏛️ Politics and culture
Navi Pillay won the Nobel Peace Prize. The 85-year-old former ICC judge joked she might share it with Trump if the crowd clapped louder. Israel condemned the award.
Brazil heads to a runoff. Flávio Bolsonaro edged Lula 47.03% to 45.16% on Oct 4. The final vote is Oct 25.
Hollywood turns on Big Tech. Aaron Sorkin's The Social Reckoning, with Jeremy Strong as Zuckerberg, is out now, and Luca Guadagnino's Altman film Artificial opens at Christmas.
California sent robot fight startup REK a cease-and-desist after a YouTuber fought humanoid robots in a cage match.
