Hey guys, happy Friday. Hope you're well.
What a week.
The McRib is coming back, and crypto traders say that means bitcoin is about to rip. Apple started selling a $1,999 iPhone that folds in half, and it's sold out until January.
Palmer Luckey's partners raised $200 million to clone military dogs. Elon Musk lost $79 billion in a single day. And hackers had a week the security world is calling "Black October."
Under all the noise, the money tells a stranger story. Borrowing got cheaper this week, and hedge funds bet against stocks harder than at almost any time in five years.
Here's our take on what's happening out there.
Grab a coffee, let's get into it.
⭐ OUR FAV 5 FROM THE WEEK
1. 🐕 Palmer Luckey's war dogs. Warhound raised $200 million to clone and gene-edit military dogs, at a $1.2 billion value, with no puppies born yet.
2. 🍖 The McRib is back. Crypto traders say that means a bitcoin rally, but bitcoin rose after 10 of 15 McRib returns, about as often as it rises in any six months.
3. 📱 The $1,999 iPhone. Apple's folding Duo went on sale today, it's sold out until January, and Apple briefly passed Nvidia as the world's most valuable company.
4. 🎲 Polymarket grows up. It fired its marketing chief, investors made the founder repay private jet and rent spending last year, and the Pentagon banned staff from using inside information to bet on military operations.
5. 🔓 Black October. Researchers using AI found two critical holes in PHP, the code behind about 70% of websites, and Cloudflare has seen millions of attack attempts since.
⚡ QUICK HITS
Musk lost about $79 billion on Thursday, falling to about $910 billion as tech stocks fell.
Airbnb banned checkout chores. For bookings made from Nov 20, hosts can't make guests strip beds, wash dishes or take out the trash. Cleaning fees averaged $145 in 2024.
World Series Game 1's cheapest seat hit $3,107, close to the Super Bowl's $3,361.
SpaceX wants about 80,000 US cell towers for a nationwide wireless network. Tower stocks jumped. AT&T fell about 5%.
Canada's biggest lottery jackpot ever: C$90 million, tax-free.
A drug dealer's "landfill" bitcoin woke up. 500 BTC, about $41.5 million, tied to an Irish dealer whose paper keys ended up in a landfill, moved to Coinbase. Nobody has said who moved it.
👔 C-LEVEL SHAKE-UPS
Automattic: WordPress's board put founder and CEO Matt Mullenweg on leave. 33 hours later he was back, the directors were out, and so were the CFO and top lawyer.
Truist: The new CEO pushed out the consumer banking chief, the last executive left from the BB&T and SunTrust merger.
NAB: National Australia Bank is cutting up to 2,500 jobs, about 6%, including "deeper changes to senior management."
Lindt: The chocolate maker's CEO left weeks after cutting its sales forecast to 0% to 2% growth.
The White House: Crypto chief Patrick Witt left, the third top crypto official out this year.
💵 COST OF CAPITAL
Chip stocks crashed Thursday, money ran to safety, and the 10-year Treasury closed under 5% for the first time since September...
Metric | Level | What it means |
|---|---|---|
10-yr Treasury | 4.96% | ▼ 13 bps on the week, first close under 5% since Sept 23 |
30-yr mortgage | 7.32% | ▼ from 7.40% |
💸 MONEY MOVES
EQT is taking Qiagen private for $12.1 billion, the biggest of 36 deals this week, and most of the big venture checks went to AI you can touch...
Deal | Sector | Size |
|---|---|---|
EQT → Qiagen | Life sciences | ~$12.1B |
Salesforce → Braze | Marketing software | $5.66B |
⚡ ENERGY & COMMODITIES
Brent hit its highest close since May after drone strikes on Saudi oil sites, but gas only slipped to $4.29 a gallon...
Commodity | Level | Week |
|---|---|---|
Brent | ~$116/bbl | ▲ ~6% |
US gasoline (AAA) | $4.29/gal | ▼ 3.5¢ |
🔥 THE TAKES
🚗 The 7-Year Car Loan Trap. Car payments hit a record $787 a month, so lenders stretched loans to 7 years, and now the car wears out before the loan does...
🤖 Banks Are Hiring AI and Locking It Out. Barclays and Amex are cutting about 9,000 jobs as they lean on AI, while the biggest US banks block the AI agents customers send into their accounts...
₿ CRYPTO CORNER
Bitcoin went nowhere at $81,500 while regulators finalized the first federal rulebook for stablecoins...
Coin | Price | Week |
|---|---|---|
Bitcoin | ~$81,500 | ▼ ~0.5% |
Ethereum | ~$2,410 | ▼ ~2% |
🎯 THE DECISION DESK
Hedge funds are shorting 5 to 1, Ackman is buying Netflix at a 52-week low, and Berkshire hit a record by owning fewer stocks...
🥽 THE HARDWARE
Claude Code is stripping ads off smart TVs, Nvidia put a data center in a shipping container, and a startup says it turned mercury into gold...
🐦️ TWEET OF THE WEEK
"Oh dear lord we're actually doing this..." @Rory_Johnston
Brent hit $116 Friday morning, near its March high of $118.
📊 THE FLOOR
Last week's Floor: how our desk voted
The Thread: Oil above $100, 10-year above 5%. What breaks first?
🟦🟦🟦🟦⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ AI companies with big debts: 40%
🟦🟦🟦⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ Housing: 30%
🟦🟦⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ Crypto: 20%
🟦⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ Nothing breaks: 10%
The Glut: Do AI token makers go bust?
🟦🟦🟦🟦🟦⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ The small ones go bust, the giants survive: 50%
🟦🟦🟦⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ No, cheaper AI means more demand: 30%
🟦🟦⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ Yes, most will go bust: 20%
The Trade: Where would you put new money?
🟦🟦🟦⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ US refiners like Exxon and Valero: 30%
🟦🟦🟦⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ Bitcoin on the dip: 30%
🟦🟦⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ Tanker companies: 20%
🟦🟦⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ Cash: 20%
This week
THE SANDWICH
The McRib is back. Does it move bitcoin?
THE FOLD
Would you pay $1,999 for a folding iPhone?
THE AGENT
Would you let an AI agent into your bank account?
Disagree? Reply and tell us where you'd put it.
This is what membership looks like.
Our Fav 5 are the stories we'd call first. Members get the people we'd call.
The investors writing $1 billion checks. The executives deciding who gets into a bank account. The founders building what comes next.
The edition is public. Membership isn't.
Apply to join 👇
